Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Qatar must depeg, gov't advisor says

Qatar must depeg, gov't advisor says
by Dylan Bowman and Reuters on Saturday, 31 May 2008
DROP PEG: Al-Ibrahim said Qatar must depeg from the dollar due to the Gulf state's soaring economic growth. (Getty Images)Qatar has to delink its currency from the weakening US dollar as the Gulf Arab country's economy is growing, an economic policy adviser to the country's emir said in published remarks.

"We have to delink," Ibrahim Al-Ibrahim was quoted as saying by the London-based magazine Meed, published late on Friday.

"It does not make sense to stay linked to a currency that is declining while our economy is growing. At a time when our currency should be going up, it is going down."

Al-Ibrahim, economic adviser to Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani, said he is "working hard" to convince the government that keeping the dollar peg is not in its interest, but that any action should be taken in coordination with other Gulf Arabs.

"The problem is really how to deal with Gulf Arab countries in terms of the objective of having one currency," he said. "We do not want to do anything that will disturb that."

Al-Ibrahim's comments come just a matter of days after Qatar's finance minister flatly dismissed claims made by Merrill Lynch that the Gulf state could soon depeg, labelling the report “baseless”.

“This report is completely untrue and baseless,” Kamal told reporters after a GCC cooperation meeting held in Doha.

Yusus Kamal was responding to a report by the US investment bank that claimed the US government had given Qatar and neighbour the UAE the green light to drop their currency pegs to the dollar to help battle record inflation.

The report said the two Gulf states would move to a currency basket within the next six months.

All Gulf states, bar Kuwait, peg their currencies to the ailing dollar. The dollar peg has been blamed for increasing the cost of imports and restricting the central bank's ability to fight inflation.

Gulf states' dollar pegs forces central banks to track US monetary policy to maintain the relative attractiveness of their currencies.

The US Federal Reserve has been slashing interest rates since September to stave off recession at a time when Gulf central banks should be hiking rates to rein in inflation.

Inflation in Qatar, which has yet to publish first-quarter data, rose slightly to 13.74% at the end of December, its second-highest figure on record, as rents and food prices surged.

Qatar is trying to cap inflation at its current level of 13.7%, below a peak of 15% seen earlier this year, the country's finance minister said this month.

US dodges issue of Gulf depegging

US dodges issue of Gulf depegging
by Dylan Bowman and Reuters on Saturday, 31 May 2008
DODGING ISSUE: Paulson (pictured) said any move to depeg from the ailing US currency would beUS Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Saturday the dollar peg for currencies in the Gulf Arab countries had served the region well and any changes to the peg would be a sovereign matter.

Dollar pegs in all Gulf Arab states except Kuwait force their respective central banks to match US interest rate cuts, and has helped fuel inflation as their economies are booming due to record oil prices.

This also reduces their purchasing power for goods denominated in other currencies.

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Asked about his concerns over the dollar peg, Paulson, on a visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, told a news conference: "That is a sovereign decision... The dollar peg, I think, has served this country [Saudi Arabia] and this region well. That speaks for itself."

Paulson's visit follows a report by Merrill Lynch, citing a US Tresury report to Congress, that the US government has given Gulf states the green light to make changes to their dollar-pegged foreign exchange policies, recognising inflation as a problem.

The report by the US investment bank said the UAE and Qatar would move to a currency basket within the next six months, while Saudi Arabia was unlikely to follow until late next year.

Qatar's top economic policy adviser Ibraham Al-Ibrahim was quoted late on Friday as saying that Qatar must de-link its currency from the dollar peg.

But Saudi Finance Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf, who joined Paulson in the news conference after a series of meetings, reaffirmed his committment to the dollar peg.

"We have no intention of depegging or revaluation," Al-Assaf said. "As Mr. secretary [Paulson] said... it's a position that has served us well. [The peg to the dollar] has served us well and we look at the long-term interest of Saudi Arabia."

Turning to the price of oil, which hit a record high of more than $135 a barrel last week, Paulson reiterated his calls for additional investment in oil producing countries, particularly from foreign sources, to help increase production.

"There is no doubt that the current prices are a burden on economies around the world and a burden on people around the world," Paulson said.

Al-Assaf agreed, saying Saudi Arabia was investing billions of dollars to increase both upstream crude oil production and downstream refining capacity to help meet global demand.

"We don't like these extreme volatilities in the [oil] market. They are not good for the consuming countries and they are not good for the producing countries."