by Amy Glass on Monday, 04 February 2008
INFLATION THREAT: GCC states will have to revalue to meet monetary union criteria on inflation, DCCI warmed. (Getty Images)Soaring inflation across the GCC is threatening to derail the block's plans to establish a monetary union and single currency by 2010, Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) warned on Monday.
The DCCI said GCC member states have so far been unable to meet inflation criteria required for the monetary union, and the situation is becoming more difficult as housing supply shortages and the rising cost of imports linked to their currencies' peg to the tumbling US dollar fuels inflationary pressure.
The criteria states that inflation rates are not allowed to exceed 2% of the lowest three's average.
Of the six member states, Bahrain has the lowest inflation rate, at around 3% last year, while Qatar has the highest level of inflation at an average of 14% last year.
However, all six are struggling to rein in inflation, with investment back Merrill Lynch predicting last week inflation will continue to rise across the Gulf this year, hitting a 20-year high of 12% in the UAE.
RELATED: UAE inflation in danger of hitting 12% this year
The DCCI said that given Gulf leaders' determination to establish a monetary union by 2010, something most analysts now think is impossible, central banks will be forced to revalue their dollar-pegged currencies in order to harmonise inflation rates.
"It is therefore most likely that the UAE Central Bank will revalue the dirham against the US dollar inline with other GCC currencies," the DCCI said an economic bulletin.
"This will help to some extent in alleviating inflationary pressure whilst retaining adherence to the dollar peg stipulated as an integral part of the convergence criteria necessary for a MU (monetary union) in 2010."
Record inflation has seen increasing pressure heaped on central banks to revalue their currencies or follow Kuwait's lead and ditch the dollar peg altogether.
Kuwait broke ranks with its neighbours in May last year and dropped the dinar's peg to the dollar in favour of a basket of currencies, citing the US currencies' falling value as driving up inflation.
Egyptian investment bank EFG-Hermes has forecast a 60% likelihood that central banks will introduce currency reform this year.
However, central banks have repeatedly ruled out any monetary policy shift.
In the latest defence of monetary policy, Oman Central Bank Governor Hamood Sangour Al-Zadjali on Saturday ruled out revaluing its currency or dropping its peg to the dollar, saying a weaker rial helps attract foreign investment and make exports more competitive, offsetting inflation.
RELATED: Oman rules out depegging, single currency
Al-Zadjali also ruled out altogether joining the monetary union by 2010, reiterating a decision Oman took in 2006 over concerns that spending targets could constrain economic growth.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Monday, February 4, 2008
Kuwait opposed to GCC expansion
Kuwait opposed to GCC expansion
by Lynne Roberts on Monday, 04 February 2008
The GCC should not expand membership beyond its current six states, a Kuwaiti official said on Sunday.
Sheikh Mohammad Sabah Al Salem Al Sabah, deputy prime minister and foreign minister of Kuwait, said the alliance should not replace the Arab League, following a Bahrain-Kuwait higher committee meeting in Manama.
“In Kuwait, we believe that if we open the GCC to other countries, we will end up with 22 members joining,” UAE daily Gulf News quoted the minister as saying.
“The GCC is not an exclusive club, but the six countries share an identity and can work together to support the Arab League."
Established in 1981, the GCC groups Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman.
The council is considering efforts by Yemen to join the alliance. The country was admitted to the GCC ministerial councils of education, health and social affairs and to the Gulf Football Cup in 2001, however its weaker economy and its status as a republic mark it out from its neighbours.
by Lynne Roberts on Monday, 04 February 2008
The GCC should not expand membership beyond its current six states, a Kuwaiti official said on Sunday.
Sheikh Mohammad Sabah Al Salem Al Sabah, deputy prime minister and foreign minister of Kuwait, said the alliance should not replace the Arab League, following a Bahrain-Kuwait higher committee meeting in Manama.
“In Kuwait, we believe that if we open the GCC to other countries, we will end up with 22 members joining,” UAE daily Gulf News quoted the minister as saying.
“The GCC is not an exclusive club, but the six countries share an identity and can work together to support the Arab League."
Established in 1981, the GCC groups Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman.
The council is considering efforts by Yemen to join the alliance. The country was admitted to the GCC ministerial councils of education, health and social affairs and to the Gulf Football Cup in 2001, however its weaker economy and its status as a republic mark it out from its neighbours.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Grand Mufti Asks Govt to Fix Price Problem
Grand Mufti Asks Govt to Fix Price Problem
P.K. Abdul Ghafour, Arab News
JEDDAH, 3 February 2008 — Sheikh Abdul Aziz Al-Asheikh, the Kingdom’s grand mufti and top religious authority, yesterday urged the government to fix prices of essential commodities in order to control rising prices.
“Every effort should be made to contain rising prices of goods all over the Kingdom,” the mufti said in comments published yesterday. “When we check prices of goods we can clearly see the greediness of traders who increase prices without any justification.”
He said increasing prices without any genuine reason was against the teachings of Islam. “There is nothing wrong in making profit but it should be within a reasonable limit and it should not harm others.”
He emphasized the need for price ceilings of every product in order to prevent traders from inflating prices by exploiting consumers’ assumptions that those price increases are due to inflation.
The mufti made this comment during Friday sermon at Imam Turki ibn Abdullah Mosque in Riyadh. He urged businessmen to fear God and warned them against making gains through prohibited activities and being greedy, without considering the interest of the country and people.
In a related development, the consultative Shoura Council has invited Finance Minister Dr. Ibrahim Al-Assaf for a meeting on Feb. 17 to discuss rising inflation and prices of essential commodities even after the 17-point program adopted by the Cabinet to contain the problem.
According to press reports, Hamad Al-Sayari, governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), which is the Kingdom’s central bank, will also attend the meeting to discuss major economic issues, including the de-pegging of Saudi riyal from a declining US dollar.
The six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) suffered a loss of $60 billion in 2007 as a result of the linkage of their currencies to the dollar, whose value declined by 10 percent during the past year.
According to preliminary reports the six countries, including Saudi Arabia, suffered a loss of $37 billion due to a fall in the value of their exports and $23 billion as a result of an increase in the value of imports.
Shoura sources said the 150-member consultative body would discuss with the finance minister prospects of increasing budget allocations for different government departments and agencies.
Apart from increasing rates of inflation in the Kingdom, which rose to a record 6.2 percent in December last year, the GCC currency union and the delay in implementing some government projects will also figure high during Al-Assaf’s meeting with the Shoura.
Al-Assaf has ruled out suggestions that the Shoura was putting pressure on the government to lift the riyal’s peg to the US dollar. “The meeting is a good opportunity to discuss major economic issues and hear the views and proposals of Shoura members,” the minister told reporters.
P.K. Abdul Ghafour, Arab News
JEDDAH, 3 February 2008 — Sheikh Abdul Aziz Al-Asheikh, the Kingdom’s grand mufti and top religious authority, yesterday urged the government to fix prices of essential commodities in order to control rising prices.
“Every effort should be made to contain rising prices of goods all over the Kingdom,” the mufti said in comments published yesterday. “When we check prices of goods we can clearly see the greediness of traders who increase prices without any justification.”
He said increasing prices without any genuine reason was against the teachings of Islam. “There is nothing wrong in making profit but it should be within a reasonable limit and it should not harm others.”
He emphasized the need for price ceilings of every product in order to prevent traders from inflating prices by exploiting consumers’ assumptions that those price increases are due to inflation.
The mufti made this comment during Friday sermon at Imam Turki ibn Abdullah Mosque in Riyadh. He urged businessmen to fear God and warned them against making gains through prohibited activities and being greedy, without considering the interest of the country and people.
In a related development, the consultative Shoura Council has invited Finance Minister Dr. Ibrahim Al-Assaf for a meeting on Feb. 17 to discuss rising inflation and prices of essential commodities even after the 17-point program adopted by the Cabinet to contain the problem.
According to press reports, Hamad Al-Sayari, governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), which is the Kingdom’s central bank, will also attend the meeting to discuss major economic issues, including the de-pegging of Saudi riyal from a declining US dollar.
The six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) suffered a loss of $60 billion in 2007 as a result of the linkage of their currencies to the dollar, whose value declined by 10 percent during the past year.
According to preliminary reports the six countries, including Saudi Arabia, suffered a loss of $37 billion due to a fall in the value of their exports and $23 billion as a result of an increase in the value of imports.
Shoura sources said the 150-member consultative body would discuss with the finance minister prospects of increasing budget allocations for different government departments and agencies.
Apart from increasing rates of inflation in the Kingdom, which rose to a record 6.2 percent in December last year, the GCC currency union and the delay in implementing some government projects will also figure high during Al-Assaf’s meeting with the Shoura.
Al-Assaf has ruled out suggestions that the Shoura was putting pressure on the government to lift the riyal’s peg to the US dollar. “The meeting is a good opportunity to discuss major economic issues and hear the views and proposals of Shoura members,” the minister told reporters.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Qatar studying 'major' currency change
by Dylan Bowman and Reuters on Wednesday, 30 January 2008
MAJOR CHANGE: Al-Ibrahim said Qatar could move without other GCC members. (Getty Images)Qatar is studying the possibility of a "major" change in monetary policy, which could include depegging its riyal from the flagging US dollar, the ruler's economic advisor said on Wednesday.
Ibrahim Al-Ibrahim said significant change was needed to address record inflation in Qatar, which hit 14% last year.
Al-Ibrahim said the government was looking at several policy options to reduce inflation, one of which was dropping the riyal's dollar peg.
"We are studying all kinds of possible ways to price our exchange rate or to price our currency," he told newswire Reuters. "A basket is possible."
Al-Ibrahim said Kuwait's decision to break ranks with its neighbours in May last year and link its dinar to a basket of currencies did not go far enough.
However, he stressed that Qatar wanted to make any decision in collaboration with other GCC member states, but left the door open for the Gulf state to move on its own if necessary.
"Kuwait really did it very little," Al-Ibrahim said. "Change should be major change, minor change won't solve the problem... Really, we would like to do everything we can through the GCC."
When asked if Qatar could act unilaterally, he said: "I think we can."
He said officials would make foreign-exchange policy recommendations to the government this year, without saying exactly when.
Gulf states' peg to the dollar forces them to track US monetary policy at a time when the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy.
Qatar has slashed its deposit-facility rate by 150 basis points in four moves since September 18, tracking the Fed, which has reduced rates by 175 basis points.
It is the second time in a week Al-Ibrahim has raised speculation Qatar is seriously considering severing its ties to the dollar in an effort to bring down inflation.
The economic advisor said in comments published on Tuesday that Qatar was studying linking the riyal to a basket of currencies, stating that "pegging the riyal to only one currency has many disadvantages".
RELATED: Qatar studying dollar peg - official
Analysts described Al-Ibrahim's remarks as "sensible" and the clearest indication yet that Qatar could depeg from the dollar in order to tackle inflation.
"The comments are very sensible. Any currency reform needs to be substantial," said Marios Marathefis, Standard Chartered's regional head of research. Gulf states should allow their currencies to appreciate by 20% against the dollar, he said late last year.
Simon Williams, senior economist at HSBC, said: "The comments are a very strong sign that the Qatari authorities are seriously examining all of their policy options to deal with inflation, including monetary reform."
Countries across the Gulf are coming under increasing pressure to depeg or revalue their currencies due to the fall in the dollar, which has been blamed for driving up the cost of imports from places such as Europe.
"Inflation is definitely affected by a reduction in the dollar, but the major contributors are the very high rate of growth of the economy, coupled with the high rate of government expenditure," Al-Ibrahim told Reuters.
He said a Qatari plan to sell bonds to absorb liquidity would give the central bank more control over money supply.
"We have made a lot of efforts to affect the price of raw materials in building, for instance, and we are doing a lot of laws, mainly consumer protection laws, that really reduce inflation," Al-Ibrahim said.
The government is considering increasing salaries and subsidising food, he said on Tuesday.
MAJOR CHANGE: Al-Ibrahim said Qatar could move without other GCC members. (Getty Images)Qatar is studying the possibility of a "major" change in monetary policy, which could include depegging its riyal from the flagging US dollar, the ruler's economic advisor said on Wednesday.
Ibrahim Al-Ibrahim said significant change was needed to address record inflation in Qatar, which hit 14% last year.
Al-Ibrahim said the government was looking at several policy options to reduce inflation, one of which was dropping the riyal's dollar peg.
"We are studying all kinds of possible ways to price our exchange rate or to price our currency," he told newswire Reuters. "A basket is possible."
Al-Ibrahim said Kuwait's decision to break ranks with its neighbours in May last year and link its dinar to a basket of currencies did not go far enough.
However, he stressed that Qatar wanted to make any decision in collaboration with other GCC member states, but left the door open for the Gulf state to move on its own if necessary.
"Kuwait really did it very little," Al-Ibrahim said. "Change should be major change, minor change won't solve the problem... Really, we would like to do everything we can through the GCC."
When asked if Qatar could act unilaterally, he said: "I think we can."
He said officials would make foreign-exchange policy recommendations to the government this year, without saying exactly when.
Gulf states' peg to the dollar forces them to track US monetary policy at a time when the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy.
Qatar has slashed its deposit-facility rate by 150 basis points in four moves since September 18, tracking the Fed, which has reduced rates by 175 basis points.
It is the second time in a week Al-Ibrahim has raised speculation Qatar is seriously considering severing its ties to the dollar in an effort to bring down inflation.
The economic advisor said in comments published on Tuesday that Qatar was studying linking the riyal to a basket of currencies, stating that "pegging the riyal to only one currency has many disadvantages".
RELATED: Qatar studying dollar peg - official
Analysts described Al-Ibrahim's remarks as "sensible" and the clearest indication yet that Qatar could depeg from the dollar in order to tackle inflation.
"The comments are very sensible. Any currency reform needs to be substantial," said Marios Marathefis, Standard Chartered's regional head of research. Gulf states should allow their currencies to appreciate by 20% against the dollar, he said late last year.
Simon Williams, senior economist at HSBC, said: "The comments are a very strong sign that the Qatari authorities are seriously examining all of their policy options to deal with inflation, including monetary reform."
Countries across the Gulf are coming under increasing pressure to depeg or revalue their currencies due to the fall in the dollar, which has been blamed for driving up the cost of imports from places such as Europe.
"Inflation is definitely affected by a reduction in the dollar, but the major contributors are the very high rate of growth of the economy, coupled with the high rate of government expenditure," Al-Ibrahim told Reuters.
He said a Qatari plan to sell bonds to absorb liquidity would give the central bank more control over money supply.
"We have made a lot of efforts to affect the price of raw materials in building, for instance, and we are doing a lot of laws, mainly consumer protection laws, that really reduce inflation," Al-Ibrahim said.
The government is considering increasing salaries and subsidising food, he said on Tuesday.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Gulf-wide currency revaluation against the weak dollar would reach up to 5-10 per cent
Dubai - With the surge in inflation across the Gulf Co-operation CouncilGulf Co-operation CouncilCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf member-economies, a GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf-wide currency revaluation against the weak dollar would reach up to 5-10 per cent from an earlier forecast of 3-5 per cent, according to EFG-Hermes, Egypt's biggest investment bank.
"The rise in inflation also has socio-political connotations and adds to the probability of GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf currency reform," the bank said in GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf Economics: Further into Negative, a report written by Dubai-based Monica Malik, senior economist at EFG-HermesEFG.
It also reiterated a 60-per cent probability that the UAE or Qatar, or both, may abandon the dollar-peg and move the dirham or rial to a currency basket during the first six months due to the "aggressive interest rate cuts" done by the US Federal Reserve this week.
But EFG-HermesEFG-HermesEFG-Hermes UAE pointed out that the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf countries, which move as a bloc, would more likely revalue their currencies than shift their peg to a currency basket.
It said that linking the currencies of the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf countries to a basket of currencies would provide "greater money flexibility" which a one-time revaluation against the greenback could not. "We maintain our view...of a move away from the US peg in H12008 by one or more states (the UAE and/or Qatar) or the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf as a whole," it added.
Market analysts have said that the slash in interest rates in the UAE and other GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf members, which followed the US Fed's 75 basis points (bps) cut in interest rates to 3.5 per cent to ward off a recession, would stoke imported inflation across the Gulf region due to the depreciation of dollar-pegged currencies against the other currencies.
"The US rate cuts illustrate just how out-of-sync the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf and the US economies are...." EFG-HermesEFG-HermesEFG-Hermes UAE said, stressing that economic fundamentals have remained and interest rates low in the Gulf region despite strong economic activity on the ground and high credit growth and liquidity in the banking sector.
"These factors will continue to add to the inflationary environment," it said. It added that lending rates, which the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf countries had kept at bay, would only have a limited impact on stemming credit growth.
"Firstly, given the strong level of liquidity in the banking sector, borrowing from the central bank is limited," it stressed. "Secondly, inter-bank rates are lower than central bank lending rates, thereby also reducing the incentive of commercial banks to borrow from the central banks."
Some estimates put at 10 per cent the UAE inflation last year from the 19-year high of 9.3 per cent in 2006 because of the weakening dollar while while EFG-HermesEFG-HermesEFG-Hermes UAE said that inflation in Saudi Arabia surged to 6.5 per cent by end-2007, adding that Oman and Kuwait had also reached multiyear-high inflation rates.
Aside from Kuwait, which unshackled its dinar from the greenback in May, the currencies of Saudi Arabia (rial), Bahrain (dinar), the UAE (dirham), Oman and Qatar (both rial) are all pegged to the dollar.
"The aggressive rate cuts in the US increases the probability of currency reform in the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf said. "We have highlighted in our research that key factors in the timing of a move from the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf will be aggressive interest rate cuts in the US and/or marked weakening in the US dollar."
The UAE and its Gulf neighbours said earlier that there would be no unilateral move to a currency basket from any of the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf members.
JOSE FRANCO
© Khaleej Times 2008
"The rise in inflation also has socio-political connotations and adds to the probability of GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf currency reform," the bank said in GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf Economics: Further into Negative, a report written by Dubai-based Monica Malik, senior economist at EFG-HermesEFG.
It also reiterated a 60-per cent probability that the UAE or Qatar, or both, may abandon the dollar-peg and move the dirham or rial to a currency basket during the first six months due to the "aggressive interest rate cuts" done by the US Federal Reserve this week.
But EFG-HermesEFG-HermesEFG-Hermes UAE pointed out that the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf countries, which move as a bloc, would more likely revalue their currencies than shift their peg to a currency basket.
It said that linking the currencies of the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf countries to a basket of currencies would provide "greater money flexibility" which a one-time revaluation against the greenback could not. "We maintain our view...of a move away from the US peg in H12008 by one or more states (the UAE and/or Qatar) or the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf as a whole," it added.
Market analysts have said that the slash in interest rates in the UAE and other GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf members, which followed the US Fed's 75 basis points (bps) cut in interest rates to 3.5 per cent to ward off a recession, would stoke imported inflation across the Gulf region due to the depreciation of dollar-pegged currencies against the other currencies.
"The US rate cuts illustrate just how out-of-sync the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf and the US economies are...." EFG-HermesEFG-HermesEFG-Hermes UAE said, stressing that economic fundamentals have remained and interest rates low in the Gulf region despite strong economic activity on the ground and high credit growth and liquidity in the banking sector.
"These factors will continue to add to the inflationary environment," it said. It added that lending rates, which the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf countries had kept at bay, would only have a limited impact on stemming credit growth.
"Firstly, given the strong level of liquidity in the banking sector, borrowing from the central bank is limited," it stressed. "Secondly, inter-bank rates are lower than central bank lending rates, thereby also reducing the incentive of commercial banks to borrow from the central banks."
Some estimates put at 10 per cent the UAE inflation last year from the 19-year high of 9.3 per cent in 2006 because of the weakening dollar while while EFG-HermesEFG-HermesEFG-Hermes UAE said that inflation in Saudi Arabia surged to 6.5 per cent by end-2007, adding that Oman and Kuwait had also reached multiyear-high inflation rates.
Aside from Kuwait, which unshackled its dinar from the greenback in May, the currencies of Saudi Arabia (rial), Bahrain (dinar), the UAE (dirham), Oman and Qatar (both rial) are all pegged to the dollar.
"The aggressive rate cuts in the US increases the probability of currency reform in the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf said. "We have highlighted in our research that key factors in the timing of a move from the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf will be aggressive interest rate cuts in the US and/or marked weakening in the US dollar."
The UAE and its Gulf neighbours said earlier that there would be no unilateral move to a currency basket from any of the GCCGCCCooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf members.
JOSE FRANCO
© Khaleej Times 2008
GCC currency may be linked to euro-led basket,
22/Jan/2008
The Gulf states are discussing pegging a planned common currency to a euro-dominated basket rather than to the US dollar, the head of the Federation of GCC Chambers has said.
“There is discussion between GCC countries about moving from a dollar peg to a more flexible currency basket made up predominantly of euros,” Abdulrahim Hasan Naqi, secretary-general of the FGCCC, said in an interview in Abu Dhabi.
“The euro is attractive for the future GCC currency because the European Union is close in structure to the GCC,” Naqi said, adding that no official studies into the subject had been conducted so far. Presently, five GCC countries - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain - peg their currencies to the dollar. Kuwait was the first to break ranks this year when it de-pegged from the weakening greenback.
Pressure has increased on GCC central banks to de-peg their currencies from the dollar as they battle accelerating inflation. “GCC countries should work together to fight inflation. Our suggestion is to buy together from outside as it will be cheaper in higher volumes, to invest in factories for food outside and to import from cheaper countries and to control our currencies,” Naqi said.
Oil-rich GCC countries have officially played down talks of de-pegging from the weakening dollar and publicly said any revaluation against the greenback will be done in unison.
“If GCC currencies do move to a currency basket the euro is likely to be an important currency but oil is priced in dollars so should make up a large part of the basket,” said Monica Malik, an economist at EFG-Hermes. On Friday, the euro traded at $1.4622 compared to its record high of $1.4967 in November.
http://www.gulfbase.com/site/interface/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?n=51708
The Gulf states are discussing pegging a planned common currency to a euro-dominated basket rather than to the US dollar, the head of the Federation of GCC Chambers has said.
“There is discussion between GCC countries about moving from a dollar peg to a more flexible currency basket made up predominantly of euros,” Abdulrahim Hasan Naqi, secretary-general of the FGCCC, said in an interview in Abu Dhabi.
“The euro is attractive for the future GCC currency because the European Union is close in structure to the GCC,” Naqi said, adding that no official studies into the subject had been conducted so far. Presently, five GCC countries - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain - peg their currencies to the dollar. Kuwait was the first to break ranks this year when it de-pegged from the weakening greenback.
Pressure has increased on GCC central banks to de-peg their currencies from the dollar as they battle accelerating inflation. “GCC countries should work together to fight inflation. Our suggestion is to buy together from outside as it will be cheaper in higher volumes, to invest in factories for food outside and to import from cheaper countries and to control our currencies,” Naqi said.
Oil-rich GCC countries have officially played down talks of de-pegging from the weakening dollar and publicly said any revaluation against the greenback will be done in unison.
“If GCC currencies do move to a currency basket the euro is likely to be an important currency but oil is priced in dollars so should make up a large part of the basket,” said Monica Malik, an economist at EFG-Hermes. On Friday, the euro traded at $1.4622 compared to its record high of $1.4967 in November.
http://www.gulfbase.com/site/interface/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?n=51708
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Currency confusion hits GCC states
01 January 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Currency confusion hits GCC states
by ArabianBusiness.com staff writer on Tuesday, 01 January 2008
At time of going to press, there was still uncertainty over the future of the five Gulf currencies’ dollar peg.
At time of going to press, there was still uncertainty over the future of the five Gulf currencies’ dollar peg.
There was uncertainty over the future of the Gulf currencies after a series of contradictory statements by the region's finance ministers, following the GCC Summit in Doha last month.
Economists and analysts had thought it likely an announcement would be made that the five GCC currencies still pegged to the dollar - the UAE dirham, Bahraini dinar, Omani rial, Qatari riyal and Saudi riyal - would either be revalued or pegged to a basket of currencies to compensate for the declining US dollar.
Some exchange houses in the UAE revalued the dirham by up to 17% during the GCC Summit, wary of losing money if the dirham was revalued. They were later penalised by the UAE Central Bank.
Story continues below ↓
advertisement
The dollar peg was reportedly not discussed at the summit, but a series of public comments since then by the heads of monetary policy in the five states has fuelled speculation that there could be at least a one-time revaluation of some of the currencies.
A local newspaper reported that Bahrain's Finance Minister Shaikh Ahmad Bin Mohammad Al Khali has told the advisory Shura council that the dinar will move from the dollar peg to a basket of currencies without appreciating.
Other reports have indicated that Qatar and the UAE, which have the highest inflation rates in the Gulf, are most likely to switch to a link with a basket of currencies, while Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Oman maintain their peg to the dollar with a revaluation.
The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points last month, a move that was copied by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar, despite concerns that it could fuel inflation.
Kuwait dropped the dinar's peg to the dollar at the World Economic Forum on May 20 last year, moving to a trade-weighted basket of currencies which is still dominated by the US currency. The dinar has appreciated by 5.5% since then.
Any decision by the other GCC states away from the dollar peg could delay the move to a Gulf single currency, which is still scheduled for 2010, although Oman has said it will not meet this deadline.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Currency confusion hits GCC states
by ArabianBusiness.com staff writer on Tuesday, 01 January 2008
At time of going to press, there was still uncertainty over the future of the five Gulf currencies’ dollar peg.
At time of going to press, there was still uncertainty over the future of the five Gulf currencies’ dollar peg.
There was uncertainty over the future of the Gulf currencies after a series of contradictory statements by the region's finance ministers, following the GCC Summit in Doha last month.
Economists and analysts had thought it likely an announcement would be made that the five GCC currencies still pegged to the dollar - the UAE dirham, Bahraini dinar, Omani rial, Qatari riyal and Saudi riyal - would either be revalued or pegged to a basket of currencies to compensate for the declining US dollar.
Some exchange houses in the UAE revalued the dirham by up to 17% during the GCC Summit, wary of losing money if the dirham was revalued. They were later penalised by the UAE Central Bank.
Story continues below ↓
advertisement
The dollar peg was reportedly not discussed at the summit, but a series of public comments since then by the heads of monetary policy in the five states has fuelled speculation that there could be at least a one-time revaluation of some of the currencies.
A local newspaper reported that Bahrain's Finance Minister Shaikh Ahmad Bin Mohammad Al Khali has told the advisory Shura council that the dinar will move from the dollar peg to a basket of currencies without appreciating.
Other reports have indicated that Qatar and the UAE, which have the highest inflation rates in the Gulf, are most likely to switch to a link with a basket of currencies, while Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Oman maintain their peg to the dollar with a revaluation.
The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points last month, a move that was copied by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar, despite concerns that it could fuel inflation.
Kuwait dropped the dinar's peg to the dollar at the World Economic Forum on May 20 last year, moving to a trade-weighted basket of currencies which is still dominated by the US currency. The dinar has appreciated by 5.5% since then.
Any decision by the other GCC states away from the dollar peg could delay the move to a Gulf single currency, which is still scheduled for 2010, although Oman has said it will not meet this deadline.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
